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Sunday, June 4 |
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6:00 PM |
Conference Registration |
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8:00 PM |
Welcome Reception/Dinner |
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Monday, June 5 |
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7:30 AM |
Breakfast |
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8:15 AM |
Welcome and Opening Remarks |
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SESSION I |
Risk 1 Chair: Jennifer Collins |
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8:30 AM |
1 |
Tools in support of planning for, and responding to weather and climate extremes Greg Holland, James Done, Cindy Bruyere, Rachel Hauser, and Mari Tye |
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9:00 AM |
2 |
Modeling in the risk transfer industry: challenges and possibilities Jan Kleinn |
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9:30 AM |
3 |
A question of risk. Realism, not return periods. Mari Tye, Geoff Saville, Greg Holland, James Done, and Cindy Bruyère |
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10:00 AM |
4 |
Cyclone Impacts to Environmental Infrastructure: A Risk Management Approach Guillermo Accame, James Done, Nicholas Santella, Richard Sheldon, and Susan Doering |
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SESSION II |
Lightning Talks |
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10:33 AM |
5 |
Your requirements, your climate service: Introducing the SECTEUR Project Louis-Philippe Caron |
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10:36 AM |
6 |
The Willis Research Network: Bridging the gap between science and industry Geoffrey Saville |
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10:39 AM |
7 |
impact of climate change on typhoon losses in Japan Peter Sousounis |
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10:42 AM |
8 |
How Quickly Can We Adapt to Change? Using Hurricane Forecast Uncertainty to Understand Damage Mitigation Efforts Andrew Martinez |
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10:45 AM |
9 |
Human and Civil Rights Implications of Disasters and Sea Level Rise in the United States Jacqueline Patterson |
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10:48 AM |
10 |
A future dilemma? An investigation of coastal urban dynamics and the urban exposure to sea level rise induced flooding Jie Song, Zhong-Ren Peng, and Liyuan Zhao |
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10:51 AM |
11 |
Study on the Effects of the Hurricanes and Climate Change Caihua MA |
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10:54 AM |
12 |
Research on Tropical Cyclone Classification and Categorization Oriented to Disaster Emergency Management Jian Li, Weihua Fang, and Xiaoning Zhang |
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10:57 AM |
Coffee Break & Poster Session |
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SESSION III |
Risk 2 Chair: Kerry Emanuel |
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12:00 PM |
13 |
Developing Sustainable Tools for Reducing Weather and Climate Impacts Cindy Bruyere and Greg Holland |
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12:30 PM |
14 |
Representing Risk from North Atlantic Hurricanes Tom Philp |
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1:00 PM |
15 |
High income does not protect against hurricane losses Tobias Geiger, David Bresch, Anders Levermann, and Katja Frieler |
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1:30 PM |
16 |
State-of-the-art of engineering approach for wind-related risk modeling of residential exposure Kazuyoshi Nishijima and Jean-Paul Pinelli |
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2:00 PM |
Lunch and Informal Discussions |
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7:30 PM |
Dinner and Informal Discussions |
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Tuesday, June 6 |
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7:30 AM |
Breakfast |
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8:25 AM |
Chair Remarks |
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SESSION IV |
Risk 3 Chair: Jan Kleinn |
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8:30 AM |
17 |
A simple, fast tropical cyclone intensity algorithm for risk models Kerry Emanuel |
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9:00 AM |
18 |
A global investigation of the impacts of landfalling tropical cyclones on societies Elizabeth Ritchie, Denise Balukas, and Kimberly Wood |
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9:30 AM |
19 |
Global Tropical Cyclone Damages Under Climate Change Laura Bakkensen and Robert Mendelsohn |
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10:00 AM |
20 |
Optimal Coastal Defense Robert Mendelsohn |
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SESSION V |
Lightning Talks |
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10:30 AM |
21 |
Evacuation behavior measured at time of expected hurricane landfall: An assessment of the effects of social networks Amy Polen, Jennifer Collins, Robin Ersing, Michelle Saunders, and Noel Rehm |
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10:33 AM |
22 |
Evacuation behavior measured at time of expected hurricane landfall: A spatial analysis of social networks Michelle Saunders, Jennifer Collins, Robin Ersing, Amy Polen, and Noel Rehm |
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10:36 AM |
23 |
Challenges in simulating realistic tropical cyclone formation over the North Atlantic basin: the role of systematic biases in climate conditions Sharmila Sur and Kevin Walsh |
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10:39 AM |
24 |
Characteristics of Eyewall Replacement Cycles among Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific (1997-2015) Minghao Zhou |
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10:42 AM |
25 |
Improvement of tropical cyclone forecasting through lightning assimilation in WRF Steven Businger, Danial Argüeso, and Thomas Dunn |
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10:45 AM |
26 |
Dominant Role of Subtropical Pacific Warming on the Extreme 2015 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Hiroyuki Murakami |
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10:48 AM |
27 |
impact of global atmospheric model specifications on the applicability for tropical cyclone research Nadia Bloemendaal, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen Aerts |
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10:51 AM |
28 |
The changes of tropical cyclones in Northwestern Pacific since 1960s and the possible effects on heat waves Ting Ding and Lijuan Chen |
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10:54 AM |
29 |
www.seasonalhurricanepredictions.org Louis-Philippe Caron, Philip Klotzbach, and Tom Philp |
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10:57 AM |
30 |
The 2016 North Atlantic hurricane season: A season of extremes Jennifer Collins and David Roache |
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11:00 AM |
Coffee Break and Poster Session |
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SESSION VI |
Risk 4 / Impact & Vulnerability Chair: Liz Ritchie |
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12:00 PM |
31 |
On the relationship between hurricane cost and the integrated wind profile Ralf Toumi and Shuai Wang |
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12:30 PM |
32 |
Late Holocene Reconstruction of Hurricane Strikes from Mangrove Lake, Bermuda Davin Wallace, Jeffrey Donnelly, Jonathan Woodruff, Peter van Hengstum, and Brad Rosenheim |
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1:00 PM |
33 |
Using large eddy simulations to estimate the vulnerability of offshore wind farms to tropical cyclones Daniel Stern, George Bryan, and Chia-Ying Lee |
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1:30 PM |
34 |
Potential hurricane damage estimates to urban and ecosystem environments along Florida's west coast Charles Paxton, Jennifer Collins, Christianne Jordon Jordon, Amy Polen, and Anxhelo Agastra |
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2:00 PM |
35 |
Inland flooding from tropical cyclones |
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2:30 PM |
Lunch and Informal Discussions |
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7:30 PM |
Dinner and Informal Discussions |
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Wednesday, June 7 |
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7:30 AM |
Breakfast |
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8:25 AM |
Chair Remarks |
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SESSION VII |
Flood & Surge Hazard / Wind Hazard 1 Chair: Suzana Camargo |
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8:30 AM |
36 |
Tropical cyclone storm surge risk to Mumbai Adam Sobel, Kyle Mandli, Zachary Burt, Suzana Camargo, Chia-Ying Lee, Michael Tippett, and Kerry Emanuel |
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9:00 AM |
37 |
Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Risk for the Continent of North America Laiyin Zhu |
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9:30 AM |
38 |
What we have learned from, and looking forward in, the field of Paleotempestology Joanne Muller and Jennifer Collins |
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10:00 AM |
39 |
Bermuda hurricane risk from the late Holocene through climate change projection scenarios - comparisons using a simple catastrophe model Mark Guishard, Thomas Perkins, Manuel Lonfat, and Kevin Mayall |
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SESSION VIII |
Lighting Talks Risk Presenters of lightning talks should also prepare a poster (dimensions to be announced) |
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10:30 AM |
40 |
Relationship between the Northwest Pacific typhoon activities and the lunar phase variations in the recent decades Shao Xie, Pu Jinbiao, and Huang Ronghui |
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10:33 AM |
41 |
variability of upper ocean characteristics and tropical cyclones in the south west indian ocean Daneeja Mawren and Chris Reason |
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10:36 AM |
42 |
Changes in rainfall over the southern African mainland and tropical cyclone activity in the Mozambique Channel Chris Reason and Daneeja Mawren |
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10:39 AM |
43 |
Influence of atmospheric dust on tropical cyclone frequency over Eastern Australia/ Southwest Pacific Ocean Rupsa Bhowmick and Jill Trepanier |
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10:42 AM |
44 |
Simulated impacts of volcanic eruptions on Atlantic hurricane genesis potential Duoying Ji and John Moore |
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10:45 AM |
45 |
Asymmetrical wind fields in hurricane wind risk assessment Chia-Ying Lee, Kevin Gong, Thomas Knutson, Daniel Chavas, Adam Sobel, Micheal Tippett, and Suzana Camargo |
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10:48 AM |
46 |
Rapid weakening of tropical cyclones: a global perspective Kimberly Wood |
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10:51 AM |
47 |
Contrasting Climatic Controls on Extremes of Tropical Cyclone Formation Rate Sharmila Sur and Kevin Walsh |
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10:54 AM |
48 |
Understanding the relationship between the maximum wind speed and minimum central pressure in a tropical cyclone Daniel Chavas and Kevin Reed |
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10:57 AM |
49 |
the summer precipitation response to the lengths of the preceding winter over Yangtze-Huaihe river valley Rong Zhi |
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11:00 AM |
Coffee Break and Poster Session |
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SESSION IX |
Wind Hazard 2 Chair: Ralf Toumi |
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12:00 PM |
50 |
A climate mechanism for stronger typhoons in a warmer world James Elsner and Nam-Young Kang |
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12:30 PM |
51 |
Linking cyclone simulation forecasts with economic analyses – lessons learned from developed and developing country applications James Neumann and Jacqueline Willwerth |
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1:00 PM |
52 |
Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using a physics-based, statistical risk model Chia-Ying Lee, Michael Tippett, Adam Sobel, and Suzana Camargo |
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1:30 PM |
53 |
Is tropical cyclone size modulated by ENSO? Suzana Camargo, John Knaff , and Daniel Chavas |
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2:00 PM |
Lunch and Informal Discussions |
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3:00 PM |
City Tour |
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7:30 PM |
Dinner and Informal Discussions |
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Thursday, June 8 |
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7:30 AM |
Breakfast |
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8:25 AM |
Chair Remarks |
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SESSION X |
Wind Hazard 3 Chair: Michael Wehner |
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8:30 AM |
54 |
Historical global tropical cyclone wind footprints James Done, Ming Ge, Greg Holland, Yuqing Wang, Geoffrey Saville, and IoanaDima-West |
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9:00 AM |
55 |
Tropical cyclone wind field during extratropical transition: NWP simulations for hazard risk assessment Emilie Scherer and Enrica Bellone |
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9:30 AM |
56 |
The use of high-resolution climate models to study the impacts of landfallinghurricanes in the eastern U.S. Kevin Reed, J Jacob Huff, Michael Wehner, and Julio Bacmeister |
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10:00 AM |
57 |
Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events Michael Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf, Kai Kornhuber, Byron Steinman, and Sonya Miller |
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SESSION XI |
Lightning Talks |
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10:30 AM |
58 |
Ekman downwelling from the lower troposphere in the intense tropical cyclones Tomoki Ohno and Masaki Satoh |
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10:33 AM |
59 |
How far can we go in modeling tropical cyclones with moist-convective shallow water? Vladimir Zeitlin and Masoud Rostami |
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10:36 AM |
60 |
Impact of ocean coupling on simulated tropical cyclone activity in the high-resolution Community Earth System Model Hui Li and Ryan Sriver |
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10:39 AM |
61 |
Intensification pathways of subtropical cyclones: selected examples from different regions. Leone Cavicchia, Kevin Walsh, and Andrew Dowdy |
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10:42 AM |
62 |
A Climatological Relationship between MJO/ENSO Phases and Tropical Cyclone Interactions with Saharan Dust Storms across the Tropical Atlantic Basin Jordan Rabinowitz and Anthony Lupo |
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10:45 AM |
63 |
Genesis of Super Cyclone Pam (2015): Modulation of Low-frequency Large-Scale Circulations and the Madden–Julian Oscillation by Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Tomoki Miyakawa, Tomoe Nasuno, and Masaki Satoh |
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10:48 AM |
64 |
Cluster Analysis of Downscaled and Explicitly Simulated Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Southern Hemisphere Hamish Ramsay, Suzana Camargo, and Savin Chand |
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10:51 AM |
Coffee Break and Poster Session |
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SESSION XII |
Wind Hazard 4 Chair: Michael Mann |
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12:00 PM |
65 |
Quantifying the human influence on recent individual major hurricanes. Michael Wehner and Colin Zarzycki |
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12:30 PM |
66 |
How unusual was the 2005 hurricane season in the Atlantic? A millennial model analysis Kevin Walsh, Sally Lavender, Malcolm King, and Louis-Philippe Caron |
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1:00 PM |
67 |
Climate change and hurricane-like extratropical cyclones: projections for north-atlantic polar lows and medicanes based on CMIP5 models Romualdo Romero and Kerry Emanuel |
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1:30 PM |
68 |
Regional variations in the ocean response to tropical cyclones: cooling by ocean mixing, warming by low cloud suppression Alexey Fedorov, Andrew Huang, Hui Li, Ryan Sriver, and Chris Brierley |
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2:00 PM |
Lunch and Informal Discussions |
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8:00 PM |
Farewell Dinner |
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Friday, June 9 |
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8:00 AM |
Breakfast |
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10:00 AM |
Departure |